Strategic Withdrawal By Russia To Concentrate Forces In Donbass Area - New Approach: One Goal At A Time
Plan A is when politicians set military strategy, and that usually doesn't work out very well. Plan B, where the military figures it out, may have a better chance of success - if Lessons were Learned.
Via Edward Slavsquat - link below:
“By Marko Marjanović, Editor of Anti-Empire.com
Several days ago I reported that Russia was withdrawing in a number of places to free up units for the key battle against the large Ukrainian army in Donbass.
Most notably the Russians abandoned the blockade of Sumy, and withdrew from much of the right-bank Ukraine in the south around Nikolayev (where I all along wondered why they ever crossed the river since they clearly didn’t have the numbers to do anything strategically productive).
As it turns out that was only the beginning of Russian withdrawals to beef up the Donbass operation as they are now also withdrawing around Kiev.
Yurasumy reports large Russian movement past Konotop going east and Russian war material from Ukraine being moved through the Bryansk border region with Belarus.
The Ukrainians confirm they have been able to enter a number of settlements around Kiev previously held by the Russians. (Here, here, here, here, here, here…) From the footage it looks like they are entering them unopposed with, at the most, the Russian rearguard harassing them with artillery fire.
It remains to be seen how extensive the withdrawal will be. For example, will they evacuate the entire force west of the river that is relatively isolated from the rest of the Russian army and probably outnumbered? (“The only bastards on the ‘wrong’ side of the river in the entire north“ as I deemed them.)
But that there is a Russian pullback from Kiev is not good news for Ukraine. The Russian forces in the Kiev operation had reached their culmination point. Having advanced over 300 kilometers they had gone as far as they could go with the numbers they had. Overstretched they could move no further. However they had stalled out before taking their strategic objectives. They were sitting next to Kiev but without the strength to encircle it and provide strategic payoff. They had taken themselves out of influencing the outcome of the war. They were harmless.
Now they are presumably being moved to Donbass where they will have the chance to exert major influence on the war if they are able to speed up the Donbass operation and make the victory there more dramatic and decisive.
In other words, Russia pulling units from everywhere to make Donbass a by-the-books operation with a massively positive correlation of forces is not good news for Ukraine. It was far better for Ukraine when the enemy was spread out over numerous axes, none of them strong enough to deliver a decisive blow.
I wrote that the danger for the Russian side was that it would become a hostage of its almost-success at Kiev. Logic dictates that an operation that has stalled and where chances of success are low should be scaled down and cannibalized to beef up more promising operations. But its forces having advanced so far and having come so near, it wouldn’t be an easy decision to pull them back.
And yet that is exactly what the Russians have done. They have made the tough call.
It is the correct call but it surely wasn’t easy to make. To voluntarily relinquish territory your forces had bled to take — that can’t be easy, no matter how strategically justified.
I am in awe of the sheer ruthlessness of Russia’s withdrawals.
The Sumy ambition abandoned. The Nikolayev ambition abandoned. The Chernigov ambition abandoned. The Kiev ambition abandoned.
I have been writing for three weeks now that Russia’s effort was very cleary too diluted over too many axes and sectors. (I would have started even earlier but early on there were so many other things that were also wrong.) I wrote that single-minded focus on the Ukrainian military center of gravity (which happens to lie in the Donbass) offered the best chances of success. These radical adjustments are evidence that Russia’s generals thought the same.
It took a few weeks but now Russia’s application of logic and military 101 is ruthlessly total.”
.More along the same lines: https://anti-empire.com/is-russia-capitulating-nope-russia-got-a-lot-more-serious/