President Trump's Fantastic Peace Deal For The Ukraine-Russia War ...

It’s fantastic in the sense that it’s pure fantasy. In order to conclude a peace treaty between two warring parties - or any contract between two ordinary parties, the subjective and objective agreement of both parties to the agreement must be obtained, or else the agreement is illusory and not binding. By excluding Zelenskyy as President of Ukraine, any agreement between Putin and Trump has no effect whatsoever, because Trump has neither actual nor apparent authority (from what Zelenskyy has said, above) to act as agent for Ukraine. This is not the same as Theodore Roosevelt negotiating an end to the Russo-Japanese War, done in 1905 - both Russian and Japanese representatives were present - an essential party, Ukraine, to this proposed transaction is not present, either directly or through an agent.

President Trump wants to see an end to the killing, and it is Vladimir Putin’s troops’ presence in Ukraine which are the reason for the killing, both by them, and of them by Ukrainians fighting for their independence from Russia. The killing will stop when the Russian troops are withdrawn and not before, and any language used by Trump such as “Zelenskyy is a dictator”, “Ukraine needs free and fair elections”, “this is a losing war for Ukraine”, “Ukraine is an illegitimate state ruled by an illegitimate ruler”, and so forth, will not act to put an end to the conflict, it will destroy Trump’s ability to act as a neutral mediator to put an end to it. And Trump, by his language, has shown that he will have no credibility with the Kyiv government, and thus will have forfeited any ability to put an end to the conflict - and this is unfortunate, it may end up putting his goals even farther away.

Also, any peace deal has to get approved by Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, and Zelenskyy, and it is doubtful that they will accept a fait accompli from a foreign government - whether it is the US or not. And if the US government is somehow a party to a deal, and is a guarantor or a signatory to a treaty, that treaty has to get ratified by Congress, and that is a very doubtful thing as witness Senator John Kennedy’s comments, below.

Bear in mind that Ukrainian resistance to the Soviet forces continued for 8 years after the defeat of the Nazis in 1945 - and this was after total war there had commenced in 1942. Right now, the Russians aren’t winning - if you don’t believe me, look at their progress on a map - see https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-19-2025.

The Russian Army that forced the Nazis from the Gates of Moscow, to eventual defeat at the Reichs Chancellery in Berlin in three years is not today’s Russian Army, which has managed to take 50% of Donetsk Oblast, and 70% of Zaporhizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts in the same three years of fighting - and is locked in a stalemate. The Ukrainians may not be winning, but neither are the Russians, and neither are anywhere close to doing so, not yet.

And if anyone thinks that any Ukrainian government will just hand over to Putin what he has been unable to obtain in three years of using military force, is just in Fantasyland, zonked out on hopium. It ain’t gonna happen, no matter what language Trump uses - not even if the US never sends another penny of military aid - the Ukrainians have the massacres at Bucha, Irpin, and Mariupol to concentrate their minds, there is nothing like a good solid massacre of civilians to stiffen one’s resolve, Tucker Carlson notwithstanding.

Senator Kennedy definitely has Vladimir Vladimirovich’s number, down to a “T” - especially the “gas station sushi” bit…

And will Putin take Ukraine peace negotiations seriously? Like he took the Budapest Memorandum, the foundation agreements for the CIS, or the Minsk Accords? Of course not, he's running short on manpower and materiel, and seeks to consolidate his control over the territory he controls, while re-arming and ginning up as much manpower as he can, so he can get the rest of what he's looking for. And giving him the entirety of what he seeks - giving his words the power his military lacks to seize control over Donetsk Oblast, of which he currently controls 50%, and of Zaporhizhzia and Kherson Oblasts, of which he currently controls 70% - is insanity, equal to that of the Western response to his taking of Crimea, which the West allowed virtually unopposed.

Putin recognizes treaties as transitory tools, to be used for strategic reasons to buy him time before he can get the rest of what he wants. And he recognizes Western security guarantees as being evanescent and numinous - never backed up with real force or the intent to use it to stop him by armed force - and that's the history of these things.

Sure, all represented parties - so far, Russia alone, but perhaps Ukraine will be let in on the fun and amusement, will send in "tough negotiators" and they will "hammer out" an impressive sounding treaty, but it will be as strong as wet toilet paper - and Putin knows it. He is not a stupid man. And the Europeans are going to have to be as serious about this as the UK, and send in troops to enforce whatever comes out - and those troops must be ready to get in armed conflict with the Russian Army, because the near possibility of that will concentrate Putin's mind wonderfully, in the way it needs to be.

It is Europe that is at risk, here, not directly the US, and the US with its $36 trillion national debt no longer has the reasonable capability to bankroll the defense of Europe - and that means that countries in Europe will have to go on the same wartime economy as have the Russians, and that won't be pleasant... so there’s that, too. The idea, for example, that the UK can only afford to send in 10,000 troops - and the 20,000 REMFs backing it up - is laughable - Ukraine is Europe’s second poorest country, yet it has been able to field a force of ten times that. Surely the UK as one of the world’s richest countries with a population of nearly 70 million, nearly twice the size of Ukraine, can easily afford to do better than that. And that’s true for a lot of the countries in Europe, as witness the pathetic performance of Chris Heusgen from Germany - usually drunks just leave parties when the free beer runs out. A lot of the ex-Soviet countries are not like this, but they have a damned good idea of what is at stake, the memory is still fresh. In this -

- replace Patton with JD Vance, and the sleeping soldier with Europe, and that's a fair commentary on the current situation.

And all of this brouhaha, these kabuki theatrics from President Trump and others, will go precisely nowhere, and it will be up to the Europeans and the UK to really take on this matter and put an end to it, on terms dis-favorable to the aggressor - and if they don’t, they will most assuredly invite other troubles in the future. There is no end to the demands of a bully, only the end of the bully.